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of Cornerstone’s founding principles was that we had
observed a dis-connect between Financial Planning and Investment
Research. It seems to us that the two disciplines are each
created in a vacuum, away from each other, without regard
for each other. The Cornerstone Commentaries will try to bring
the two together in a way that investors will be able to understand
and see how various strategies, plans and news can impact
their financial future.
Plans
Fail in a Vacuum
Financial Planning has been presented to investors as a well-packaged
document full of projections, charts and very authoritative
text, with lots of small text to give it a more sober tone.
If the investor just follows the plan, they will achieve their
lifelong goals, because it says so right in the Financial
Plan.
The charts,
graphs and projections are based on what is usually purported
to be actual investment results over a given time frame, be
it the past 5 yrs, 10 yrs or 20 yrs. But what about the next
5, 10 or 20 years? No answers. A multitude of projections
based on the past, but nothing new based on economic research
is usually provided.
Risk is
usually measured not as the potential loss of real dollars
but in an abstract way through Standard Deviation. “Your
portfolio has a Standard Deviation of 16 Mrs. Jones, which
is obviously better than a Standard Deviation of 17.”
Thank goodness it is 16 and not 17 - 17 could have been disastrous!
Investment
Research – How Does It Apply to Me?
Investment Research on-the-other-hand is many times presented
without giving any context. Are they writing to institutional
investors, traders or you? Would that make a difference?
“We
think XYZ is a perfect fit for a long term portfolio”.
This sounds like a great recommendation. But is it? Are they
really saying that they think the stock is going to stink
for a long while before it finally turns up again, but they
have no idea when that might happen? When they say “perfect
fit”, what are the other investments in the portfolio
to which they refer? Are there other invests the investor
should have in their portfolio that make this one “fit”?
Many times
someone from the financial media will press an analyst for
his single favorite stock pick. Just because it is this analyst’s
favorite does not mean it is a good investment for everyone,
nor does it mean that an investor should go out and overweight
their portfolio with that stock.
Acme Brokerage
may have a “Recommended Asset Allocation” or “Model
Portfolio” that is 60% stocks 30% bonds and 10% cash.
They are obviously bullish with such a heavy weighting in
stocks. Or are they? Many times the asset allocation model
is meant for institutional investors not individuals. Many
brokerages employ floors and ceilings on these allocations.
Knowing
where these are would tell you more about how they really
feel about the asset allocation and the markets. If you found
out that they had a floor (minimum) allocation of 55% for
stocks, then 60% isn’t really all that bullish. If they
had a ceiling (maximum) allocation of 10% for cash and they
were at 10%, what does that tell you about their view of the
markets? They are at their highest cash allocation possible,
sounds pretty bearish.
Many institutions
have written policies that require certain minimum allocations
in stocks and bonds and maximum allocations in cash. But do
individuals? Are you required to be in stocks and bonds at
all times, regardless of market conditions? Of course not.
Putting
It All Together
The Cornerstone
Commentary attempts to put the world of Financial Planning
and Investment Research together and presented in a way that
is relevant to the individual investor. The Commentaries will
try to put into perspective how various economic and market
related research and news impacts you. We will also integrate
how the various shifts in the economic sands can impact financial
planning. We will uncover many of Wall Street’s closely
held secrets and we will also endeavor to poke holes in many
of the investment myths that are hyped by Wall Street and
fervently believed as dogma by investors.
It is
our belief that after reading the Commentaries, you will be
a much better educated investor. Some of what you will read
will be new and much of it will be things that you thought
you knew but turned on its head to give a different perspective.
If you
have any questions, comments or observations, we would love
to hear from you. And if you know of anyone you care about
that could use this information, please feel free to forward
the article(s) to them.
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