Cornerstone
Commentaries
Where Financial Planning and
Investment Research Merge
One of Cornerstone’s founding principles was that
we had observed a dis-connect between Financial Planning and Investment
Research. It seems to us that the two disciplines are each created
in a vacuum, away from each other, without regard for each other.
The Cornerstone Commentaries will try to bring the two together in
a way that investors will be able to understand and see how various
strategies, plans and news can impact their financial future.
Plans Fail in a Vacuum
Financial Planning has been presented to investors as a well-packaged
document full of projections, charts and very authoritative text,
with lots of small text to give it a more sober tone. If the investor
just follows the plan, they will achieve their lifelong goals, because
it says so right in the Financial Plan.
The charts, graphs and projections are based on what
is usually purported to be actual investment results over a given
time frame, be it the past 5 yrs, 10 yrs or 20 yrs. But what about
the next 5, 10 or 20 years? No answers. A multitude of projections
based on the past, but nothing new based on economic research is usually
provided.
Risk is usually measured not as the potential loss
of real dollars but in an abstract way through Standard Deviation.
“Your portfolio has a Standard Deviation of 16 Mrs. Jones, which is
obviously better than a Standard Deviation of 17.” Thank goodness
it is 16 and not 17 - 17 could have been disastrous!
Investment Research – How Does It Apply to
Me?
Investment Research on-the-other-hand is many times presented without
giving any context. Are they writing to institutional investors, traders
or you? Would that make a difference?
“We think XYZ is a perfect fit for a long term portfolio”.
This sounds like a great recommendation. But is it? Are they really
saying that they think the stock is going to stink for a long while
before it finally turns up again, but they have no idea when that
might happen? When they say “perfect fit”, what are the other investments
in the portfolio to which they refer? Are there other invests the
investor should have in their portfolio that make this one “fit”?
Many times someone from the financial media will press
an analyst for his single favorite stock pick. Just because it is
this analyst’s favorite does not mean it is a good investment for
everyone, nor does it mean that an investor should go out and overweight
their portfolio with that stock.
Acme Brokerage may have a “Recommended Asset Allocation”
or “Model Portfolio” that is 60% stocks 30% bonds and 10% cash. They
are obviously bullish with such a heavy weighting in stocks. Or are
they? Many times the asset allocation model is meant for institutional
investors not individuals. Many brokerages employ floors and ceilings
on these allocations.
Knowing where these are would tell you more about
how they really feel about the asset allocation and the markets. If
you found out that they had a floor (minimum) allocation of 55% for
stocks, then 60% isn’t really all that bullish. If they had a ceiling
(maximum) allocation of 10% for cash and they were at 10%, what does
that tell you about their view of the markets? They are at their highest
cash allocation possible, sounds pretty bearish.
Many institutions have written policies that require
certain minimum allocations in stocks and bonds and maximum allocations
in cash. But do individuals? Are you required to be in stocks and
bonds at all times, regardless of market conditions? Of course not.
Putting It All Together
The Cornerstone Commentary attempts to put the world of Financial
Planning and Investment Research together and presented in a way that
is relevant to the individual investor. The Commentaries will try
to put into perspective how various economic and market related research
and news impacts you. We will also integrate how the various shifts
in the economic sands can impact financial planning. We will uncover
many of Wall Street’s closely held secrets and we will also endeavor
to poke holes in many of the investment myths that are hyped by Wall
Street and fervently believed as dogma by investors.
It is our belief that after reading the Commentaries,
you will be a much better educated investor. Some of what you will
read will be new and much of it will be things that you thought you
knew but turned on its head to give a different perspective.
If you have any questions, comments or observations,
we would love to hear from you. And if you know of anyone you care
about that could use this information, please feel free to forward
the article(s) to them.
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