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CIS
Model
Portfolio for
Income
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Investments We
Currently Utilize:
Our
strategy is to merge our successful risk management strategy with
the income needs of investors. Listed below are the types of investments
we use. We may or may not use the specific investments in your portfolio.
There are many factors for this including timing, value, yield and
risk. This is an overview of the types of securities we believe have
the best chance for success.
Background:
To the right is a comparison of current yields of some investments.
Income investors need to know what the range of current yields are
and this sets the stage for a better understanding of the challenges
they face.
No investment is without risk. The higher yields are theoretically
compensation for the additional risk. If an investor wants
income with no risks, other than inflation and bank failure risk,
then they should stick with bank CDs and stop reading right
here.
If you have read this far, I will assume you have rejected the prospects
of depending on low yielding banks CDs.
At Cornerstone we have reviewed various income options and have evaluated
the potential risks. We believe that with the right risk managements
and asset allocation, an investor can enjoy higher yields while not
exposing themselves to undue risks.
We are not eliminating risk. The income investor needs to be more
focused on the cash flow than the principal, since the principal will
fluctuate. If you do not want to see your principal fluctuate, then
bank CDs are for you.
Income Stocks
Bonds are normally the first stop for the income investor. But certain
stocks fulfill the requirements of rising income and low interest
rate sensitivity. Bonds can’t do this.
(All yields quoted are estimates and are from Morningstar and Bond
Trader Pro. They represent investments within the asset class referenced
that fit into our requirements. There will be securities in each asset
class with higher or lower yields.)
Utilities - These are economically sensitive, and
have some interest rate sensitivity. Historically, they have been
used as sources of rising dividend income.Current yields range from
2.00% - 5.50%
Drug Companies - With the aging population and the
globalization of healthcare and consumer goods, drug company earnings
are more stable and dividends more reliable. This is another good
source of rising income. Current yields range from 2.00% - 6.50%
Consumer Goods - Even with a slowing economy, people
still need the basics and with growing consumerism in the emerging
nations many companies are finding new markets in which to sell their
goods. This stabilizes earnings and solidifies dividends. Consumer
goods have been a good source of rising dividends. Current yields
range from 2.00% - 6.00%
Natural Resource Companies/Oil Companies - Hard Assets
are one of the big winners of the Urbanization that is sweeping the
Globe. The emerging markets are consuming natural resources at rates
much faster than the developed world. This has the potential to ignite
inflation here while they drive prices higher. Although volatile,
and have dividends that can fluctuate, these companies have the potential
to outperform and raise dividends faster than the average stock. Current
yields range from 2.00% - 4.50%
Banks - What are banks doing on our list? None are
domestic banks. As economies recover, they can be some of the first
beneficiaries. Earnings can be volatile and so dividends may also
vary. Potential for good long term income growth.Current yields range
from 2.00% - 4.50%
Emerging Market
Stocks/Bonds - The fastest growing areas in the world are
in the Emerging Markets. Lead by China, they are separating themselves
from the developed economies by having little debt and higher growth
rates. Volatility and long term growth are the main stories here.
Earnings will be volatile, potentially leading to some good dividend
increases. Focus is on needed growth for future income. Current yields
range from 0.00% - 5.00%Aggressive Income - Royalty Trusts and MLPs
can be good sources of high income. But they can also be depleting
assets. They need to be traded and watched carefully. The yields are
high for a reason. These are high risk.
Current yields range from 5.00% - 10.50%
Bonds:
The strategy on bonds is simple, ladder them out about 3 years and
as the first year bonds come due, buy a 3 year bond. In this way,
an investor is able to follow interest rates up as they rise. Current
rates are very low, so they need to be used in combination with other
asset classes for the overall portfolio to have a higher current yield.
Corporate Bonds
Strategy: Ladder 1 - 3 years, highest quality only.Ratings and maturity
have a lot to do with pricing and yield. The coupon does not tell
you how much you will get. The Yield to Maturity is what the investor
receives in yield. Corporate bonds have an added risk of default.
Looking for only the highest quality is important.
We look for bonds that are priced “wrong” for their ratings and maturity.
For instance, the XYZ bond might have the same rating and maturity
date as ABC bond, but is priced much lower, giving it a higher YTM.
The questions is, what is wrong with it? Is it worth the risk? The
yield to maturity alerts us to pricing that might be out of the ordinary.
It could indicate a good buy or a problem bond. Just looking for the
highest yield to maturity is not a good strategy. Current yields to
maturity range from .10% - 2.20%
Muni BondsStrategy:
Ladder 1 - 3 years, avoid certain states.Municipal bonds have a variety
of types of bonds and risks. We primarily look for General Obligation
bonds, due to their lower risk, but other bonds such as pre-refunded
or certain revenue bonds could be appropriate for our purposes. Insured
bonds may not be a safe haven because of the questionable finances
of the insurers.
Our strategy is the same as with Corporates, to be patient and look
for mis-priced bonds. Muni bonds also have the risk of default, so
care is needed to not just go for the highest YTM.
Current yields to maturity range from .10% - 1.75%
Treasuries/TIPs Strategy: Ladder 1 - 3 years.
Because of the efficiency and liquidity of the Treasury market, there
no chance of finding mis-priced bonds. Because of their low current
yields, Treasuries are used for their safety more than their yield.
But a laddered portfolio will allow us to follow rates as they go
higher, and eventually, we believe yields on Treasuries will be attractive.
TIPs (Treasury Inflation Protection Securities) are the preferred
type of Treasury because they offer a “bonus” on the yield based on
the inflation rate. Since inflation is one of the key enemies of bonds,
getting based on the inflation rate dampens some of the risk. Current
yields to maturity range from .10% - 2.00%
Junk Bonds - Muni/Corp Strategy: Small amounts only.
Low rated bonds can have very attractive yields. But they are low
rated for a reason, they have plenty of risk of default. We are not
opposed to using low rated bonds, but they have to be done in very
small amounts as to not increase the risk of the portfolio.
Mutual Funds:
(Share classes will impact yield*)
Because of the high turnover within the portfolio, short term bonds
are well suited for the mutual fund structure. Advantages they offer
are professional management and diversification. The yields of the
funds we utilize range from a low of 1.50% to a high of 3.50% according
to Morningstar. As always, the higher the yield, the more risk the
fund is taking.
Duration and credit quality of the underlying portfolio may impact
the volatility of mutual funds. Generally lower yielding funds may
have much lower volatility. So while some may have higher yields,
they come with higher risks.
ETFs - This is another efficient way to invest in
short term bonds. They are easily tracked and highly liquid. The varieties
of ETFs today allow us to focus on certain sectors we prefer.
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